In a report at the end of August, Mosesmann, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities Securities, said that the bottleneck for Intel's semiconductor manufacturing was not just a 10-nanonode delay, but a lot of time to solve the problem, because it would create a five-year, six-year, and six-year process disadvantage for Intel. Even seven years.
In addition, CNBC cited a report by Chris Caso, an analyst at Raymond James, a financial firm, as saying that Intel's current lag may never catch up with its rivals.
Chris Caso said in his report that Intel's biggest problem is the 10-nanometer delay, so it is not expected to launch a 10-nanometer server processor in the next two years. The 10-nanometer delay also opens a window for competitors and may never be closed.
Chris Caso stresses that although Intel has stalled, its competitor, TSMC, has not, so when Intel is about to start producing 10-nanometer server processors, TSMC's production processes are already on the cutting edge in more advanced processes.
The report further emphasizes that in the next generation of semiconductor manufacturing technology, TSMC produced 7 nm in 2018. At present, Apple's A12 and Huawei's Hessian Kirin 980 processors are all produced by TSMC's 7 nm process.
In addition to mobile processors, AMD's 7-nm CPU and GPU will also use TSMC's 7-nm HPC high-performance process, which is expected to be mass-produced in 2019.
In contrast, Intel's 10-nanometer process, although claimed to be the same as TSMC's 7-nanometer process, will not be mass-produced until 2020, and Intel's investment in the next 7-nanometer process is still unknown, but rivals TSMC and Samsung have planned 5 nanometers and 3 nanometers in succession. The development of the process.
Among them, TSMC has invested more than $25 billion in the 5-nanometer process, which is expected to be commissioned in 2019 and produced in 2020, while the 3-nanometer process is expected to invest about $20 billion to start construction in 2020 and complete equipment installation in 2021. It is expected to produce in volume by the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023.
As a result, both TSMC and Samsung have unveiled blueprints for the next two generations, although there are still some uncertainties in the 5-and 3-nanometer manufacturing technology and the final production time may not be as expected.
In contrast, Intel still has no announcement on the nodes after 10 nm fabrication, including the upgrade of the wafer plant, expansion plans are still unknown, so the future Intel wants to recover the gap behind, it is likely to be far away.
